Welcome to the first in a four part series we are calling Trend Spotting, written by futurist and friend of Callaghan Innovation, David Mattin.
Over this series David will supercharge your ability to be a trend-driven innovator helping you spot powerful emerging trends that have deep relevance in the agritech space.
Finally, I think this stuff is too good not to share. I know I have 5 people I will pass it along to and encourage you to do the same.
I hope you enjoy it, and I would be keen to hear what you think!
Pro Tip - If you don’t have time to read this email, why not try listening to it? David Mattin has recorded an audio version of this first instalment - it is only 8 minutes and a surprisingly enjoyable way to digest this information - listen here.
Trendspotting with David Mattin - Part 1
What is the central challenge we all face when we plan for the future?
It’s change.
That challenge is what I’m here to address. I want to show you a new way to approach the fast-paced and often chaotic change we live with in 2024.
What I have in store for you is a simple, structured method that empowers you to turn overwhelm into opportunity.
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I’m David, and understanding a changing world is my obsession.
I work with professionals inside some of the world’s leading organisations to help them make sense of, and respond to, what lies ahead.
Most of all, I’m obsessed with trends. Specifically with the trends reshaping human behaviours and mindsets. These kinds of trends change what consumers and clients expect — and purchase — from the organisations they engage with. They shift the business landscape. And they reshape our relationship with the technologies and natural resources around us.
And they’re what this four-part email series is all about.
In this email series I want to turn you into a trend-driven innovator. If I do my job, once this series is done you’ll be empowered to spot powerful emerging trends of deep relevance to the agritech space. You’ll be able to analyse them, to understand what they mean for you and your organisation. And, most important, you’ll be able to use them to create meaningful and impactful new innovation ideas.
The last part is the most important, because above all trends are meant to be useful.
Think of them as springboards that empower you to create ideas for new products, services, campaigns and more. Ideas that tap into deep underlying shifts, and that move your organisation forward.
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Before we dive into how to spot and use trends, we need ask some foundational questions. What, at heart are trends? How do they arise?
Trends are made from two key building blocks: change and fundamental human needs.
Any agritech professional knows that in 2024, they’re operating in a fast-changing landscape. There’s the AI revolution (some say AI Armageddon) and ongoing economic turbulence to contend with, and that’s just for starters. Meanwhile, the planetary environmental crisis is asserting itself in new ways.
It’s overwhelming. And it can be hard to know how to make sense of it all, let alone devise your next innovation or plot a new strategy.
But amid this there is a simple, powerful truth that can anchor us. Yes, we are amid overwhelming change in 2024. But amid it all, we’re still the same humans with the same fundamental human needs.
We humans are motivated by a set of core needs. Think value, security, convenience, status, and many more. At their most fundamental those needs don’t change. This truth is the anchor that allows us to make sense of a changing world and its implications for our lives and businesses.
New trends emerge when some change in the world — perhaps an emerging technology, a shift in underlying economic circumstances, or something else — unlocks a new expression of a fundamental human need.
This is crucial. It’s when change unlocks a new way for people to express an age-old need that we see new behaviours, mindsets, and expectations emerge at scale.
I’m no artist (as you can tell from the below) but I’ve drawn a diagram:
As trendwatchers, we’re always on the lookout for signs that some change in the world is colliding with a fundamental human need. Those signs tell us that a new trend is emerging — and that means opportunity.
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We’ll dive deeper into all that in the coming emails.
But I want to close today’s message with a brief example of this phenomenon in action.
For a while now I’ve been tracking a trend of deep relevance to agritech that I call Resilience Training.
The pandemic was a reminder, for millions around the world, of the fragility of the economic and social systems that underpin our way of life. And now, new geopolitical and economic turbulence is destabilising supply chains and pushing up prices of food and everyday goods.
Against these changes, the Resilience Training trends will see consumers embrace new products, services and experiences that bolster their resilience against disruption, socio-economic turbulence, and future crises. That means lessening their reliance on fragile global systems, and embedding them deeper in reliable local networks and resources.
Look at these examples of Resilience Training in action:
Crate to Plate is a UK-based startup that grows leafy vegetables in innovative hydroponic farms in central London:
Clothes retailer MUJI is opening ‘Muji farms’ in its stores: in-store grocery departments that stock only locally grown produce. The first opened in its Shanghai store last year:
The government of Singapore recently partnered with the video game Roblox to create an in-game world called SG Farm Tycoon. It’s intended to help educate young Singaporeans about local food security, and encourage citizens to produce and buy local:
At heart, this trend is about the collision of changing circumstances — economic turbulence, supply chain issues and more — with the fundamental human need that is security.
The core question for you as agritech innovators is: what innovation could you launch to tap into this emerging trend? To tap, that is, into this new manifestation of the age-old human need for security?
Take this trend — and that question — back to your team this week. And let the discussion flow!
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In the next email we’ll look at how innovation examples of the kind I’ve show today can help us when we want to use a trend to create our own innovation ideas.
Not because we simply copy the innovations we’ve spotted. But because we draw out underlying principles that inspire our own creativity.
Real-world examples also play a key role in allowing us to spot emerging trends. We’ll look at that, too.
But I’m getting ahead of myself. For now, it’s time to sign off.
Thanks for reading. And don’t forget to explore the opportunities that Resilience Training presents to you and your team.
